I have (quite reasonably) been asked if those figures for Melksham and the traffic figures are real ....
I'm sure that Melksham ticket sales are a 'quirk' ... it would be an average of 25 people getting on or off every single train. More realistic figure is between 4 and 10 people per train - between 6000 and 14000 real arrivals / departures, giving "Melksham Special" ticket sales elsewhere a figure of 24,000 to 32,000.
"Melksham specials" are tickets which were sold for shorter journeys that did not start / end at Melksham, as for a while the fare from Melksham to Bristol was lower than the fare from (for example) Bradford-on-Avon to BristolHere is my surmise of what the ticket sales (and real revenue forecast) would be with a service of 10 trains per day:
Up the service to 10 trains a day, and you'll get 15 to 20 people per train in the first full year after 3 months to 'settle' i.e. the 2010/11 year - and that would be usage figures (ticket sales) of 54,000 to 72,000 which we know accounts for about a quarter of the traffic carried on the line - so single journey count would be around a quarter of a million, at 3 pounds per journey gives an income of 3/4 million - but it would stand a 4 pound fare, giving a 1 million income which would make money for the operator.
That's a summary - I have not shown my workings or assumptions, but I'm reasonably confident in the figures which err very much on the convervative side when you look at things like the size of the catchment. I would be very happy to go through the figures in details with any of the candidates for the forthcoming Wiltshire elections ... or First, DfT or NR come to that, but I suspect they're already familiar with them.
P.S. New support pledge -
http://www.transwilts.org.uk/pledge.html - please sign up if you support an improived service
