| ||
| Suggestion for future service Here is the suggestion that I (Graham Ellis) have put forward to the timetable consultation process at First Great Western. Consultation inputs due by 8th March. First will be reviewing them and talking with Department for Transport as necessary by the end of April. Julian Crow of FGW told a meeting in Warminster on 6th March that he anticipated a number of changes to the draft timetable in the light of reviews and the consultations; I'll keep you posted! Link - Consultation input form TT06 Timetable Consultation Response from Graham Ellis concerning the service from Service from Swindon to Westbury and beyond, including all trains passing through Melksham, Wiltshire. Prepared and submitted on 7th March 2006. Overview The proposed train service Swindon - Chippenham - Melksham - Trowbridge - Westbury under SLC2 is inadequate for the current traffic levels, and runs the minimal remaining services at seriously degraded times. On a service that's rapidly getting busier, the proposals don't make economic sense for First who would end up running at least one of the trains near-empty when other available timings would offer good loadings. An even better commercial is made for a service to run every 2 hours. My Proposal: Most commercially viable option: Trains to run from Westbury to Swindon, calling at all stations, at 05:45, 07:45, 09:45 and 11:45 in the morning, and 14:45, 16:45, 18:45 and 20:45 in the evening. Journey time 45 to 50 minutes (an extra 5 minutes is NOT critical on this route) returning from Swindon at 06:45, 08:45, 10:45 and 12:45 in the morning, then at 15:45, 17:45, 19:45 and 21:45 in the evening. OR gaining most possible traffic from just two services: Trains to run from Westbury at 07:45 and 16:45, returning from Swindon at 08:45 and 17:45 Following sections - Detailed Background - What's wrong with the draft timetable? - How could this be improved at this service level? - What is the best commercial case? - Weekend Services - Notes - Summary Detailed background This is input concerning the service to be offered under SLC2 (i.e. from December 2006) by First Great Western on the line from Swindon to Westbury. The current service is something of a success story, with compound growth of 35% per annum (meaning an eight-fold rise in passengers) from 2000/01 to 2004/05 - ticket sales up from around 3,200 per annum for journeys to and from Melksham to 27,400. This is the best available indicator according to the Office of the Rail Regulator. (Ref 1) Towns on the West Wilts corridor that this line services (Westbury area, Trowbridge, Melksham) all continue to grow rapidly with thousands of new homes, and there is a natural commuter and leisure flow to and from the major towns of Wiltshire: - Swindon, Salisbury and Chippenham. The draft timetable proposed the retiming of the train that arrives into Swindon at 08:18 so that it arrive earlier (08:02), and the departure of the train that leaves at 17:43 to leave at 18:12. It also proposes that all other trains be discontinued, and just a service be provided from Swindon at 06:20 with a return train arriving there at 19:55. What's wrong with the draft timetable? a) The morning train at 06:20 from Swindon runs before the first of any of the existing services and would service an early morning commuter market to Salisbury and Bristol with changes at Trowbridge or Westbury. The First train is unlikly to gain this market due to the lack of a return train at around 16:45 in the afternoon from Westbury b) The train that arrives in Swindon at 08:03 is some 15 minutes EARLIER than the current service, which was already retimed earlier recently with much grumbling and loss of traffic. Rather than the current 08:18 arrival, this train should arrive at Swindon ideally at 08:30. c) The train that departs at Swindon at 18:12 is half an hour LATER than the current service at 17:43. There is some argument for running this train a few minutes later than the current timing, but the proposed delay to 18:12 means that there's a one minute connection at Westbury for ongoing passengers to Frome, and such passengers would then have quite a long wait for the next service in the event of even a very short delay. d) The train that arrives at Swindon at 19:55 is too late for a returning commuter train from Salisbury or Bristol via Trowbridge unless there were an opposite working at around 08:45 from Swindon in the morning. As it stands, this train is likely to run near empty. I am unable to comment on draft proposals for Saturday and Sunday trains, since I have not seen any timings for them. How could timings be improved AT THIS SERVICE LEVEL a) A train to run from Westbury to Swindon at 07:45, returning from Swindon at 08:45. b) A train to run from Westbury to Swindon at 16:45, returning from Swindon at 17:45. Why would this improve loadings / revenue / commerial case? 1. The later arrival and earlier departure from Swindon would encourage commuter traffic from Westbury, Trowbridge and Melksham. The existing traffic from Frome would be better retained, and with appropriate connections new traffic gained from the rapidly growing Dilton Marsh and Warminster areas. 2. The earlier than (draft timetable) proposed evening departure from Swindon would make for a reliable connection at Westbury on to Frome so that the Frome traffic would be retained and would grow. 3. Running the unit from the Westbury end of the line would provide an opportunity for the morning up / evening down service to be extended from / to Dilton Marsh, Warminster and Salisbury OR Frome and perhaps beyond (Yeovil) with the gaining of extra (ex-road) traffic yet without the need to buy in extra stock. 4. The 08:45 from Swindon and 16:45 from Westbury would provide a "pair" of trains for regular commuter traffic to Melksham, Trowbridge and Westbury 5. The 08:45 from Swindon and the 16:45 from Westbury would provide a service otherwise missing for visitors to Melksham. Just yesterday, four customers on our course had arrived by train from London - at a return open fare of around 100 pound each. Such customers usually arrive on the (currently) 09:12 and leave on the 17:02. 6. The 08:45 from Swindon would provide an off-peak buy on the day fare opportunity to London, of the type that Julian Crow and Alision Forster have both said in recent days that they're keen to encourage. Under the current regime, the walk on fare on the 09:02 is 38 or 45 pounds, but without the 09:02 the cheapest weekday walk on fare to London would rise to over 100 pounds in December, then rise again in January 2007. 7. The suggested timings form the basis of a regular "clock face" service that people will remember, and will fit in well with First's plans for regular interval services throughout their network. What is the BEST COMMERCIAL CASE? a) Trains from Westbury at 05:45, 07:45, 09:45 and 11:45 in the morning, then at 14:45, 16:45, 18:45 and 20:45 in the evening. b) Trains from Swindon at 06:45, 08:45, 10:45 and 12:45 in the morning, then at 15:45, 17:45, 19:45 and 21:45 in the evening. This would require a single train unit ("type 153?"). I understand these are likely to be available for lease (First is taking over just 7 of the 15 currently leased by Wessex Trains and under the draft timetable returing the others) and that lease costs are approaching 200,000 pounds per annum. (Source - Julian Crow, 6th March 2006). I costed out this option on previous figures (see Ref 2) and although the quoted train costs are higher, it still makes best commercial sense. 1. Current traffic growth of 35% per annum compound would be set to continue. Looking five years ahead, that would give ticket sales at Melksham of more than 200,000 per year. Observation of trains indicates a current traffic of between 3 and 4 passengers who travel via Melksham for every one who alights or joins, so that would give a conservative traffic of 800,000 passenger journeys per annum. At that point, the operator will have a SEVERE OVERCROWDING PROBLEM!! 2. There is much evidence that traffic WOULD continue to grow: a) Melksham and other West Wilts towns on the line in question are continuing to grow rapidly, but at the same time other local services, such as hospitals, are being centralised in Swindon, Salisbury, etc. b) Colin Rees of First Bus reports that the X71 / X72 service through Melksham is the most rapidly growing service in his "patch" and he has proposed to double the frequency of the service. c) Train passenger traffic levels at Bradford on Avon are 10 times that of Melksham, in spite of that sister town being just half the size of Melksham. But Bradford on Avon has an hourly (approx) train service. d) Alison Forster (4th March 2006) referred to a market in waiting throughout the Great Western area - she believes that across the region there are 1.5 extra passengers who WOULD travel if they knew about the service for every 1 who does at present. I believe that for Melksham, the figure is more like 1:4 as the service has very limited publicity. e) There were only 8 responses (of which 7 were AGAINST the cuts) to the SRA's consultation. But since then, I have (as a private individual) called a meeting at my home and had around 35 "stakeholders" and users turn up, and in response to a request to make inputs to this consultation I understand that some 27 people have emailed you in just the last 48 hours. f) Traffic increased 33% from a one day survey I did on a Friday in the middle of September 2005 to a Friday in the middle of December. This shows an accelerating pace of additional use and awareness of the service beyond the ORR figures which are only available to April 2005 at present. g) The 2001 census shows that there were 60 people who claim to live in Melksham and commute by any means of transport to London (that's compared to 38 commuters from Westbury). I don't see many of them using the current train service, but that's yet another potential, growing, regular and lucrative market. 3. There is plenty to do at relatively little cost to First and no cost to the Department for Transport to increase traffic and revenue further a) The services to Melksham should be shown along with other First services out of Swindon b) The Swindon to Westbury service should be shown in other First publicity. c) The line has a poor cancellation reputation (deserved - up to 20% of services have been cancelled in recent weeks) and a poor timekeeping reputation (probably NOT deserved). With a less complex rotoring system, 75% running time and 25% turn around time both these issues could be resolved. The Swindon to Westbury service would NOT pass through the bottlenecks of Salisbury, Bristol or Reading so would be less likely to suffer knock on delays, or to cause any such delays. d) A clockface service - i.e. one that always runs in the same pattern after the hour - would encourage regular users and facilitate marketing so that a higher proportioin of Alison's potential users would indeed travel by train. e) Road to Rail interchange at Melksham station is in the county plan and Bloor homes who are building residential units on a site by the station are providing the link road. First now run both buses and trains in a near monopoly in Melksham so can co-ordinate the services with X72 and 234 calling at the station at the cost of perhaps 1 minute extra travel per journey. f) Stronger income protection measures could help collect additional revenues at times that a rail replacement bus service is being run (but the current staff are good at collecting fares when the train is running) g) A fare rise of around 20% in real terms would be acceptable to most users and would result in very little loss of traffic indeed. Weekend Service a) At two trains on each of Saturday and Sunday, I would propose that the trains run at the same time that I'm proposing for 2 weekday trains - i.e. 07:45 and 16:45 from Westbury and 08:45 and 17:45 from Swindon. There is an alternative argument for the SUNDAY trains to run from Westbury at 09:45 and 16:45 and return at 10:45 and 17:45. b) With a two-hourly service during the week, Saturday and Sunday trains should start with the 07:45 from Westbury and then run to the same timings as on weekdays. Notes This case has been updated on best possible recent information available to me, and is supported by some 130 signatories via my web site, and some 120 customers who have used the train to attend courses. I have NOT attempted to time connections at Westbury and Swindon; although they are important it is very clear from listening to Julian Crow speak in Warminster on 6th March that many timings are likely to be changed and so I feel it best to leave this matter in the hands of timetablers rather than suggest a prescriptive timing which no longer makes sense when an ongoing train is also being retimed for other reasons. Other options that provide a regular service every hour or every 2 hours would be welcome alternatives. For example, I know of a suggestion to run the new hourly London to Westbury service onward to Trowbridge, Melksham, Chippenham, and perhaps Swindon, and I could fully endorse that plan in principle. Indeed, Trowbridge (the county town of Wiltshire) and Melksham would benefit from a fast, regular London service. Yet another acceptable option would be to originate the train as shown in the draft timetable at Swindon but at 06:45, run 7 return trips (every 2 hours) during the day and have the return service finish up at Swindon at 21:30. This is probably a very easy timetabling solution, with the train being run from Gloucester via the Stroud valley attached to that service to put it in place each day. If you have any questions on the data and information provided in this report, please do not hesitate to contact me (Graham Ellis) on 01225 708225, or by email via graham@wellho.net Summary 1. As proposed in the draft timetable - the first and last trains don't provide a good match to the requirements of the people of West Wilts and visitors to the area. 2. As a minimum, the remaining trains should run return trips from Westbury at around 07:45 and 16:45 3. It makes commercial sense for First to lease a 153 (or similar) unit to run a service every 2 hours, from 05:45 to 11:45 and from 14:45 to 20:45 from Westbury, returning from Swindon 1 hour later. With the proposed service of 8 trains per day, traffic would continue to increase at the 35% compound rate shown for the past 5 years to the mutual beneifit of the First Group, and the people and businesses of the area. I urge you to submit a final timetable along these lines, and can assure you of the ongoing support of the people of the area in helping you to maximise their effectiveness. Many thanks for giving your attention to this contribution. I look forward to working with you in the future - hopefully along the lines described. -- Graham Ellis 404, The Spa, Melksham, Wilts, SN12 6QL 01225 708225 graham@wellho.net 7th March 2006 |