I thought you might be interested in some figures from the Regional Spatial Strategy that's under review / pending finalisation over the next month or so, showing how the South West area of the UK will grow (in terms of homes and employment) over the next 20 years - that's 2006 to 2026.
"Strategically Significant Towns and Cities" ...
Swindon to grow by 34000 homes and 32000 jobs
Chippenham to grow by 4500 homes and 6000 jobs
Trowbridge to grow by 5000 homes and 12000 jobs
Trowbridge is the only SSTC in West Wilts, accounting for 5000 homes of the 15500 extra homes planned for West Wilts, which leave an additional 10,500 homes to be built in West Wilts but not in Trowbridge. I've not got any indication of where those extra homes will go, but the options I see are:
a) In the countryside
b) Bradford on Avon
c) Melksham
d) Westbury
e) Warminster
For access and sustainability, I would be surprised at scatter development in the countryside, and I would be surprised if the current population and representatives from Bradford on Avon welcomed huge growth there. Which leaves Melksham, Westbury and Warminster with - say - 3500 new homes each.
It's possible that all my growth figures are low. Across the nation, there's a realisation that plans in the RSS are around 20% to 25% down on what will be needed. Taking a likely scenario of the extras being spread around evenly, that adds:
42,000 homes in Swindon
5,600 homes in Chippenham
4,200 homes in Melksham
6,200 homes in Trowbridge
4,200 homes in Westbury
4,200 homes in Warminster
What proportion growth is that? Melksham is around 23,000 population at present and at 2.32 people per house (see
here for how I got that figure) the extra houses that would boost the population to just under 33,000 - a growth of over 40%.
How is the transport infrastructure and system going to cope with these increases? With the increasing need to consider environmental issues, and associated matters such as higher fuel costs, how will West Wiltshire cope with these changes?
Did those of you who were at the WWRUG meeting the other week notice that Andrew Seedhouse of GOSW denied major growth plans on the TransWilts corridor except for Swindon? It appears that he was talking absolute numbers rather than relative growth ... and indeed the absolute numbers ARE much higher for Swindon. Proportionally, they're LOWER than the growth for Melksham