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Author Topic: Growth plans for housing and jobs in North and West Wilts  (Read 2082 times)
Graham Ellis
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Growth plans for housing and jobs in North and West Wilts
« on: November 18, 2006, 09:36:14 AM »

I thought you might be interested in some figures from the Regional Spatial Strategy that's under review / pending finalisation over the next month or so, showing how the South West area of the UK will grow (in terms of homes and employment) over the next 20 years - that's 2006 to 2026.

"Strategically Significant Towns and Cities" ...

Swindon to grow by 34000 homes and 32000 jobs
Chippenham to grow by 4500 homes and 6000 jobs
Trowbridge to grow by 5000 homes and 12000 jobs

Trowbridge is the only SSTC in West Wilts, accounting for 5000 homes of the 15500 extra homes planned for West Wilts, which leave an additional 10,500 homes to be built in West Wilts but not in Trowbridge. I've not got any indication of where those extra homes will go, but the options I see are:
a) In the countryside 
b) Bradford on Avon
c) Melksham
d) Westbury
e) Warminster
For access and sustainability, I would be surprised at scatter development in the countryside, and I would be surprised if the current population and representatives from Bradford on Avon welcomed huge growth there.  Which leaves Melksham, Westbury and Warminster with - say - 3500 new homes each.

It's possible that all my growth figures are low. Across the nation, there's a realisation that plans in the RSS are around 20% to 25% down on what will be needed. Taking a likely scenario of the extras being spread around evenly, that adds:
42,000 homes in Swindon
5,600 homes in Chippenham
4,200 homes in Melksham
6,200 homes in Trowbridge
4,200 homes in Westbury
4,200 homes in Warminster
What proportion growth is that?  Melksham is around 23,000 population at present and at 2.32 people per house (see here for how I got that figure) the extra houses that would boost the population to just under 33,000 - a growth of over 40%.

How is the transport infrastructure and system going to cope with these increases?  With the increasing need to consider environmental issues, and associated matters such as higher fuel costs, how will West Wiltshire cope with these changes?

Did those of you who were at the WWRUG meeting the other week notice that Andrew Seedhouse of GOSW denied major growth plans on the TransWilts corridor except for Swindon?  It appears that he was talking absolute numbers rather than relative growth ... and indeed the absolute numbers ARE much higher for Swindon. Proportionally, they're LOWER than the growth for Melksham
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Nick Field
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Re: Growth plans for housing and jobs in North and West Wilts
« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2006, 02:07:19 PM »

This makes interesting reading Graham.  I do remember Andrew Seedhouse confirming that there were no [i]significant[i] growth plans along the trans wilts corridor other than in Swindon.  Some of the figures for rest of the North and West Wilts areas look pretty scary though.  My concerns would be:

1.  How the hell are the roads going to cope if we havent got decent public transport to use?
2.  Where are these houses going to go?

I know in Chippenham for example that most of the brownfield sites have been or are being developed, they would have to start buildong again on greenfield land.
I have tried searching about on the Wiltshire County Council and North Wiltshire District Council sites but cant see anything in the plans about where the development might take place other than on land I already know of.

Hell, at this rate Chippenham, Melksham, Corsham and Trowbridge will become one place in about 20 years!  Grin

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Graham Ellis
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Re: Growth plans for housing and jobs in North and West Wilts
« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2006, 05:07:44 AM »

The 15500 extra homes (probably + 20% to 25%) in West Wilts are to be imposed by the government and then it's up to the local authority to decide where to place them (except that around 5000 are to be Trowbridge).  I have surmised / guessed what they would do in expanding 4 of the five existing towns, but it's possible that they could all go into one designated area.
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Graham Ellis
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Re: Growth plans for housing and jobs in North and West Wilts
« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2006, 05:54:54 AM »

Having just written "it's possible they could all go in one designated area", I worked out what that could look like:

Bratton and Edington New Town

To meet the extra housing needs of an expanding population in the next 20 years, an additional 11,000 to 12,500 new homes are to be built around the villages of Bratton and Edington in West Wiltshire. The population of the new town will rise to approximately 30,000 by 2026, so making it comparable in size with Trowbridge today.

Access to Bent (as the new town will be called) will be off the Westbury bypass, currently in the planning stage.  A flying junction just below White Horse Hill will lead to a 3 mile access road running along the valley just to the North of Salisbury plain.  Terraced housing on the edge of the the plain will allow maximum housing density to be achieved while at the same time giving most new residents spectacular views across the valley of the Avon and up towards Pewsey Vale.  Rail access will be at nearby Westbury station, although if the population growth exceeds expectations, it's possible that the Department for Transport could approve the reopening of Edington Station with a limited London commuter service from 2021.  This would need additional financial support from the County Council.

Schooling for primary children will be in the town, with secondary children travelling by bus to their parent's choice of Melksham, Trowbridge or Warminster. Medical facilities are already available nearby in major hospitals at Bath, Salisbury and Swindon, and a new doctor's surgery will be included in the plans for Bent. Good shopping facilities are available at Trowbridge, to be supplemented by a convenience store, a hairdresser and a selection of take aways in Bent itself. Jobs will be at Swindon, Chippenham, Melksham, Trowbridge and Warminster; it's anticipated that there will be little new employment offered within Bent itself, as it's not historically an area of high employment apart from in agriculture, and planning applications for major factory units may not be acceptable to the local population.

In 1821, one in every 100 peple in Wiltshire lived in the Bratton and Edington area, but that dropped by 2001 to just one in 350.  These proposals for Bent will help restore that historic balance and more and put Bratton and Edington back on the map.

Author's note - this is a spectulative proposal without foundation in fact - or is it?  The Reginal Spatial Strategy is calling for the number of additional homes suggested to be built in West Wiltshire excluding Trowbridge, and options such as the one outlined must be the sort of thing to be considered - if not at Bratton and Edington, then elsewhere in the area. Road and rail transport, schools, hospital, employment and building plans suggested are based on current practise for towns of this size.
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