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Recommended service - hourly, according to the GWRUS. Let's work towards that service and towards ensuring all services are used.
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Author Topic: A Jacobs Future  (Read 1903 times)
Lee
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A Jacobs Future
« on: October 30, 2006, 03:43:21 PM »

Had the Jacobs draft report (click on http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_foi/documents/page/dft_foi_612539.pdf) recommendations been accepted , then here is what we would have ended up with (in the words of Jacobs) :

"Service restructuring with linking of services across Bristol Temple Meads to provide through journey opportunities and relieve platform occupancy."

"Establishing a more regular two-hourly or hourly clockface repeating pattern of service."

"Withdrawal of most train calls at very lightly used stations, e.g. Thornford , Chetnole."

Along with the following Jacobs - recommended options :

"Cardiff – Southampton: 0700 ex Cardiff withdrawn, and all but three of the services truncated at Westbury."

"Brighton through services: economic case for retention – however much of this accrues within Southampton – Brighton route section."

"Limited scope for any further reduction of lightly used station calls beyond Straw Man: only Upwey alternate calls"

"Some scope in midday off-peak to thin the local Bristol – Weston super Mare stopping service and to increase the quantum of through London service provision."

"Linking together of the Bristol – Oxford services proposed in the Straw Man with Weston – Bristol services, enabling an additional return trip to Oxford in marginal time."

"Add back Severn Beach extensions truncated in the Straw Man timetable."

"Add back some off-peak Melksham line trains between Swindon and Westbury removed in the Straw Man."

"Truncations to provide later first trains and earlier last trains on certain routes."

"These options recommended are assessed to improve the financial NPV by £8.5m and economic NPV by £8.9m compared with the Straw Man as a base."

(Post modified to include extra link.)
« Last Edit: January 14, 2007, 01:20:20 PM by Lee » Logged
Graham Ellis
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Re: A Jacobs Future
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2006, 05:05:14 PM »

As I understand it, that's saying that there was better economic case with a Weston - Oxford service in the off peak, with Severn Beach all-rail, and with 4 more Swindon - westbury round trips ... I wonder why they didn't go for that?
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Lee
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Re: A Jacobs Future
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2006, 06:22:11 PM »

As far as Melksham is concerned , the problem appears to lie in the following quote from the DfT / WCC letter exchange , Graham (link below.)
http://www.wellho.net/dft_foi/dft20060719.pdf

"for example , a 2-hourly Swindon - Southampton service was modelled , based on TEMPRO forecasts of population growth , and using standard industry modelling to assess passenger growth. The business case for such a service was negative."

This was because the Jacobs Greater Western Franchise Replacement Outline Business Case Report , unlike the Jacobs draft report , DID NOT consider a Swindon - Westbury service.

Even in the relatively benign Jacobs draft report , the southern section of the Swindon - Southampton service is described as follows :

"This option tests the value of the Cardiff to Southampton services on the section south of Westbury where demand is known to be lightest."

The recommendation?

"Cardiff – Southampton: 0700 ex Cardiff withdrawn, and all but three of the services truncated at Westbury."

No Melksham option that included the southern section of the Swindon - Southampton service was ever likely to be recommended , but only such an option was considered in the Jacobs Greater Western Franchise Replacement Outline Business Case Report.

This "negative" Melksham business case was later "confirmed" by long - disputed passenger counts , as the following quote from the DfT / WCC letter exchange shows.

"Later in the franchise award process , the level of service on the route was again reviewed , but against recent data showing that only the morning train to Swindon and the evening return carried more than 20 passengers , we concluded that there was not a case for an increase."

Just as the DfT have always maintained the above to be the case , Save The Train have always maintained that it isnt (links below.)
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/melkshamrailway/145_Letter_from_Derek_Twigg.html
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/melkshamrailway/138_Lies_damned_lies_and_statistics.html
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