My understanding is that the franchise was awarded based on overoptimistic availabiity assumptions for both staff and trains. Then during the following 9 months they concentrated on merging the organisations at management level, reducing staff in those areas by 10%. I'm not entirely sure at what point they said "oops - we may have a problem" for December '06 - official line is that it was early which is why they did all the consultation, but there are no hints that they were recruiting drivers and guards at that point to be putting them through training to come on line during 2007.
Have a look at the various posts I've put up - re: Andrew Griffiths and Julian Crow's talks last week - you'll find Andrew came up with some figures of drivers/guards currently in training, and extra drivers/ guards being recruited. Of course, you must expect the "strong on the positives" line from FGW - it's called "Customer Relations". In summary, I would believe ...
* Two years ago, First were planning to operate without recruitment but with natural wastage if they won
* A year ago at this time, there probably was a recruitment freeze but perhaps just ending
* Today there has been a lot more recruitment but the staff aren't on line yet
Although things are being put right, I would be suprised if much slack is being put into the system
