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Lee
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Future Analysis
« on: August 20, 2006, 03:35:04 PM »

Here is the Rail Freight Group's response to the Greater Bristol Strategic Transport Study (link below.)
http://www.rfg.org.uk/policy/responses/?edname=17459.htm&ped=17459

Quotes from the above link :

"Portishead to Bristol  - there would be no freight objection to running passenger trains on this line, although it should be recognised that freight traffic might well increase, and that passenger traffic should not impede freight."

"Suburban Bristol Services - over Avonmouth - Filton Junction route, and Bristol to Severn Beach passenger extensions.  Again, freight may well increase on this route, and any passenger services will have to fit in - and pay for any enhancement required."

"We question where is the evidence of limited number and capacity of terminals constraining growth.  There are some additional locations in the Severn Beach area not yet developed, and also the Bristol West depot.  We are confident that, if demand increases for rail freight as we believe it will, then there will be sufficient terminal capacity in the area, subject to land use planning."

"There are gauge restrictions, which mean that 9' 6 boxes can only be carried on ‘well wagons’.  However, these wagons are available and used, and are useful where demand is low.   If it increases, then pressure can be put on the SRA to increase gauges.  However, it should be born in mind that more than 50% of containers in use are smaller than 9‘ 6 high and therefore can be carried on standard wagons."

"As to ‘general capacity constraints and conflicts with passenger service,’ this appears to infer that passenger services have priority over freight, which is at best a nuisance.  The capacity constraints are caused as much by passenger as freight trains and I do not believe it is helpful to use this wording. Unless it really is the policy of this Strategic Transport Strategy to give passenger trains priority over freight."

"We are surprised that no mention is made of the port of Bristol/Avonmouth and its transport needs.  Current transport to the port includes a number of rail freight movements, for coal, automotive as well as other products."

"I enclose a copy of our Freight on Track papers which I hope provides some useful information to back up some of our comments, and which will enable you to produce a more balanced final document.  We are of course at your disposal if you would like to discuss any of the issues further."

Here is the land up for sale by BRB (Residuary) in the Severn Beach area (link below.)
http://www.brb.gov.uk/property/property_listings/index_html?keyword=Severn+Beach

The Greater Bristol Strategic Transport Study recommended building a guided busway over the Severn Beach line. I had a conversation with a very reliable source a few weeks ago who suggested that a Severn Beach - Bristol guided busway would not be feasible because there would be insufficient capacity on the main line section running into Bristol Temple Meads.

I agree. However , I do think that there is a dangerous possibility that a guided busway could be built over the line from Avonmouth to the road just after Montpelier station with buses then turning right towards Junction 3 of the M32 to join one of the proposed Showcase Bus Routes into Bristol city centre.

There is also a possibility that the HoldFast method could be used to "mothball" the rail route described above and turn it into an A4 toll relief road. The problem with this would be the tunnel sections. However , HoldFast must be confident that such obstacles can be overcome , otherwise they wouldnt have shortlisted the Portishead line (link below.)
http://www.thisissomerset.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=150802&command=displayContent&sourceNode=150790&contentPK=14561569&folderPk=84815

Unlike the Portishead line , there is very little (if any) freight traffic that would displaced on the Avonmouth - Montpelier route.

As the link above says , HoldFast are on record as saying that they want to install their system on several other routes around Bristol.

Here is a link to the Rail Freight Group's Freight On Track campaign.
http://www.railfreightgroup.com/policy/campaigns/

The Freight On Track campaign page contains a link entitled "Paper 7: The Essential Rail Freight Network" Click on this and note the map.

Then note the following quotes :

"Freight and passenger services - working in harmony.

Rail freight exists comfortably on the rail network alongside ESSENTIAL passenger services. Many freight trains can run in the evenings, during the middle of the day and at night when passenger demand is lower. Most freight trains run at average speeds which are similar to a semi-fast passenger service so their impact on network capacity is less than fast intercity or slow all-stations trains. Freight trains don’t use congested commuter lines during the peak periods."

"There is currently no gauge cleared route for high cube boxes from the port of Southampton - where rail moves up to 1000 containers every working day. At present, only one route is planned for high cube containers from the UK’s largest container port – Felixstowe - where rail moves over one quarter of a million containers every year. The route, connecting the port with the Midlands and West Coast Mainline, is due to be cleared by autumn 2004. Because it runs via heavily used and congested commuter lines in London, it will not be able to accommodate the forecast growth in container traffic. In any case, it makes sense to route freight, that doesn’t need to pass through London, onto more lightly used cross-country routes."

The accuracy of the above quotes can be judged by the service recieved by stations such as Dean , Dilton Marsh , Dunbridge & Melksham in the final FGW December 2006 timetable (link below.)
http://www.firstgreatwestern.co.uk/Documents/Custom/Rev%20Dec%20TTs/SX%20-%20Cardiff%20-%20Bristol%20to%20Weymouth%20-%20Portsmouth%20-%20Brighton.pdf

Here is a link to the JSPTU Rail Vision.
http://www.jsptu-avon.gov.uk/publications/documents/railstrategy.pdf

You will notice from the Figure B map on page 5 of the link above that only certain stations were proposed to be served by First Great Western. The rest were proposed to be served by a "future local service TOC."

Does anyone honestly believe that such a TOC will be set up? The signs dont look good to me.

Here is a quote from the from the JSPTU Rail Vision.

"The strategy is to promote an increase in rail use in offpeak periods that will increase train utilisation sufficiently to effect a steady reduction in external financial support. Because the stimulus of regular traffic congestion will not be here to move travellers from cars, the Councils will need to co-operate with train operators and community groups to build and market an attractive service."

I could not agree more. However , if a process of cutting services is embarked upon , then less passengers will use them. My belief that the current round of cuts mark the start of a continuing process is strengthened by these quotes from the Terms of the Greater Western Franchise Agreement :

"1.1   The Franchisee shall, as and when reasonably requested by the Secretary of State, provide information to the Secretary of State on the extent of the use by passengers of the Passenger Services.  In particular and when so requested, the Franchisee shall provide information relating to:

(a) the number of passengers travelling in each class of accommodation:
(i) on each Passenger Service;
(ii) on each Route; and/or
(iii) at any station or between any stations; and

(b) the times of the day, week or year at which passengers travel."

1.3 The information specified in paragraph 1.1 shall be provided by the Franchisee:

(a) in such format and to such level of disaggregation as the Secretary of State may reasonably require in order to assist the Secretary of State’s decision-making on future service level commitments, infrastructure, station and rolling stock vehicle investment, the best use of the network and the alleviation of overcrowding."

Contributors to this forum have already witnessed such surveys being carried out. An example can be found in the link below.
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=249.msg659#msg659

The DfT have lodged a complaint with the ORR about the prices being charged for leasing rolling stock (link below.)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5123898.stm

However , you need to bear in mind that , whatever the cost of hiring a unit , neither the DfT or First are likely to allow it to lie idle for large parts of the day while it waits to form a skeleton "essential" service.

They are very likely to withdraw such services instead.

Here is a link to the Rail Freight Group's response to the DfT Closure Guidance consultation.
http://www.rfg.org.uk/policy/responses/?pid=3284&lsid=3287&edname=21289.htm&ped=21289

Quote from the above link :

"Increase in Freight Only Line Costs.

The costs of maintaining freight only lines are borne by the freight operators through access charges.  These proposals are likely to increase such charges, by making lines which are currently shared into freight only lines, and in any cases where a passenger service is withdrawn and the line retained without any current freight use.  In the latter case (which may be infrequent) there should be a mechanism to prevent the costs falling to the freight operators."

In two White Papers (Future Of Transport & Future Of Rail) the DfT effectively offered the railfreight sector the following deal :

Pay more and you can have assured rights of access to the rail network and to key routes on it. It says so in both White Papers. There are even grants to ease the cost burden (links below.)
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_freight/documents/divisionhomepage/039481.hcsp
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_freight/documents/page/dft_freight_610669.hcsp

The Future Of Transport White Paper also states that rail may not always be the best solution and that alternatives (both to existing and future rail services) should be considered.

One of these alternatives is about to become reality in the form of the Bristol Showcase Bus Routes Scheme (links below.)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/bristol/4747277.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/bristol/5157322.stm

The funding for this scheme is split as follows :

DfT £42 million.
First £20 million.
Private Developers £6 million.

As well as Showcase Bus Routes that parallel rail routes being approved to Keynsham , Oldfield Park , Portishead , Weston - super - Mare & Yate , two Showcase Bus Routes have also been approved to Norton Radstock , where a large housing development is being built on former railway land (link below.)
http://www.nrrcompany.co.uk/

Burford Group (a property developer) owns the international railfreight terminal at Avonmouth. Here are some relevant links.
http://www.cabotpark.co.uk/pages/whychoose_cabot.asp
http://www.cabotpark.co.uk/pages/whychoose_track.asp
http://www.davidlawson.co.uk/Files/Rail087.htm

Future growth at this terminal is one of the main reasons behind this quote from the Network Rail Business Plan 2006 (Page 11 of the link below.)
http://www.networkrail.co.uk/documents/3111_Route%2013%20Great%20Western%20Main%20Line.pdf

"The rail freight industry has recently provided to
Network Rail a set of 10 year traffic forecasts, and
we are presently assessing their implications. The
key route section within this route that has been
identified as a fragile route and has clearly defined
additional tonnage/train numbers projected by the
industry is the Clifton Extension Line (Narroways
Hill Junction – Filton West Junction via Avonmouth)."

Unfortunately , this means that restored passenger services to locations such as Filton North & Henbury are likely to remain very much on the drawing board.

Here are some further references on related issues.

2006.
http://www.networkrail.co.uk/aspx/3085.aspx
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=334.msg958#msg958
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_railways/documents/page/dft_railways_611064.pdf
http://www.networkrail.co.uk/browse%20documents/rus%20documents/route%20utilisation%20strategies/south%20west%20main%20line/appendices/appendix%202.2.pdf

2004.
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_about/documents/page/dft_about_031273.hcsp
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_about/documents/page/dft_about_031274.hcsp

1999.
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_freight/documents/page/dft_freight_503891-07.hcsp

1963.
http://www.piccadillypilot.co.uk/beeching/report1/15%20Appendix%202.pdf
http://www.piccadillypilot.co.uk/beeching/report1/16%20Appendix%203.pdf
http://www.piccadillypilot.co.uk/beeching/report1/17%20Appendix%204.pdf

I believe that it is up to us as rail campaigners (for that is what we are) to do everything we possibly can to ensure that the above scenario does not come to pass. If we are to achieve a truly integrated public transport system which in turn helps to shift a decent amount of cars and lorries off our roads , then we need to ensure that ALL the available modes (including the current , and in future , an expanded passenger rail network) are used to ensure this.

I will end with the following quote from the link below.
http://www.christianwolmar.co.uk/articles/rail/516.shtml

"So there is an important regeneration point: should not these stations not be used as a regenerative tool to foster development rather than simply be abandoned leaving local residents facing the prospect of a railway line whose only purpose is giving them a nice view of Pendolino (or Adelante , HST , Voyager trains - Lee) trains whizzing past. What is unfortunate about the current state of the debate on the railways is that there is not even anyone asking such questions, let along providing any answers."

I would like to think that we are.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2006, 04:29:35 PM by Lee » Logged
Lee
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2006, 10:37:35 AM »

"Freight and passenger services - working in harmony.

Rail freight exists comfortably on the rail network alongside ESSENTIAL passenger services. Many freight trains can run in the evenings, during the middle of the day and at night when passenger demand is lower. Most freight trains run at average speeds which are similar to a semi-fast passenger service so their impact on network capacity is less than fast intercity or slow all-stations trains. Freight trains don’t use congested commuter lines during the peak periods."

"There is currently no gauge cleared route for high cube boxes from the port of Southampton - where rail moves up to 1000 containers every working day. At present, only one route is planned for high cube containers from the UK’s largest container port – Felixstowe - where rail moves over one quarter of a million containers every year. The route, connecting the port with the Midlands and West Coast Mainline, is due to be cleared by autumn 2004. Because it runs via heavily used and congested commuter lines in London, it will not be able to accommodate the forecast growth in container traffic. In any case, it makes sense to route freight, that doesn’t need to pass through London, onto more lightly used cross-country routes."

The accuracy of the above quotes can be judged by the service recieved by stations such as Dean , Dilton Marsh , Dunbridge & Melksham in the final FGW December 2006 timetable (link below.)
http://www.firstgreatwestern.co.uk/Documents/Custom/Rev%20Dec%20TTs/SX%20-%20Cardiff%20-%20Bristol%20to%20Weymouth%20-%20Portsmouth%20-%20Brighton.pdf

In the final FGW December 2006 timetable , Dilton Marsh has 21 services in total and Dean & Dunbridge both have 20 services in total.

Of these , 12 services could reasonably be described as being in the middle of the day or in the evening , when passenger demand is lower.

The movement of the morning train yet earlier, and the evening train yet later, in spite of our consultation inputs for the reverse, looked like a slap in the face for Swindon to Melksham, Trowbridge and Westbury passengers.  On my "blog" a couple of days ago, and in email too, I asked for the real reasons behind this - a bit of honesty - and I'm delighted to have received and answer from Andrew Griffiths.  He writes.

As a quick glance at the timetable will show, we've had to resource the Melksham service using the Stroud Valley unit - which is why the timings can't me moved as we all would like.  With two sections of single line and a busy mainline in between pathing is very constrained.

Melksham is to recieve a skeleton "essential" service , but only "essential" from an operating convenience point of view.

For more analysis on the final First Great Western December 2006 Timetable , click on the link below.
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=357.msg1078#msg1078
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2006, 10:04:38 AM »

The Greater Bristol Strategic Transport Study recommended building a guided busway over the Severn Beach line. I had a conversation with a very reliable source a few weeks ago who suggested that a Severn Beach - Bristol guided busway would not be feasible because there would be insufficient capacity on the main line section running into Bristol Temple Meads.

I agree. However , I do think that there is a dangerous possibility that a guided busway could be built over the line from Avonmouth to the road just after Montpelier station with buses then turning right towards Junction 3 of the M32 to join one of the proposed Showcase Bus Routes into Bristol city centre.

Not sure how a guided busway works? Here is a handy guide (link below.)
http://www.firstgroup.com/ukbus/yorkhumber/bradford/qualitybus/qualitybus/index.htm

There is also a possibility that the HoldFast method could be used to "mothball" the rail route described above and turn it into an A4 toll relief road. The problem with this would be the tunnel sections. However , HoldFast must be confident that such obstacles can be overcome , otherwise they wouldnt have shortlisted the Portishead line (link below.)
http://www.thisissomerset.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?nodeId=150802&command=displayContent&sourceNode=150790&contentPK=14561569&folderPk=84815

Unlike the Portishead line , there is very little (if any) freight traffic that would displaced on the Avonmouth - Montpelier route.

As the link above says , HoldFast are on record as saying that they want to install their system on several other routes around Bristol.

It is important to note that we are not talking jugganaughts here. The HoldFast system can only carry cars and light vans weighing less than 2.5 tonnes.

Note also that First run freight trains (link below.)
http://www.gbrailfreight.com/gb-railfreight-intermodal-container-business-daily-container-services/p_96/
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2006, 10:27:56 AM »

Here is a link to the JSPTU Rail Vision.
http://www.jsptu-avon.gov.uk/publications/documents/railstrategy.pdf

You will notice from the Figure B map on page 5 of the link above that only certain stations were proposed to be served by First Great Western. The rest were proposed to be served by a "future local service TOC."

Does anyone honestly believe that such a TOC will be set up? The signs dont look good to me.

The Future Of Transport White Paper also states that rail may not always be the best solution and that alternatives (both to existing and future rail services) should be considered.

One of these alternatives is about to become reality in the form of the Bristol Showcase Bus Routes Scheme (links below.)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/bristol/4747277.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/bristol/5157322.stm

The funding for this scheme is split as follows :

DfT £42 million.
First £20 million.
Private Developers £6 million.

As well as Showcase Bus Routes that parallel rail routes being approved to Keynsham , Oldfield Park , Portishead , Weston - super - Mare & Yate , two Showcase Bus Routes have also been approved to Norton Radstock , where a large housing development is being built on former railway land (link below.)
http://www.nrrcompany.co.uk/

Here is a quote from the Network Rail Business Plan 2006 (Page 10 of the link below.)
http://www.networkrail.co.uk/documents/3110_Route%2012%20Reading%20to%20Penzance.pdf

"provision of additional capacity off the route across the greater Bristol area and through Reading and the Thames Valley to London."

The proposed Bristol area scheme is reffered to on Page 10 of this section of the Network Rail Business Plan 2006 (link below.)
http://www.networkrail.co.uk/documents/3111_Route%2013%20Great%20Western%20Main%20Line.pdf

Quotes from the above link :

"To address the growing need for additional capacity to meet forecast demand we are in the initial stages of development for schemes at, and between, Paddington, Reading, and Oxford, across the greater Bristol area and in South Wales."

"turnback and capacity improvements between Yate and Weston Super Mare."

The Bristol Showcase Bus Routes Scheme was approved at the same time as several other schemes , examples of which can be found in the link below.
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=297.msg813#msg813

Unfortunately , as the link above states , regional assemblies were not allowed to include rail schemes in their bids.
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2006, 10:13:32 AM »

Here is a link to the Friends Of Suburban Bristol Railways view on this. They have joined other local groups in criticising the Draft Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) for the South West. The final document, produced by the South West Regional Assembly , will shape policy over the next 20 years until 2026. FOSBR argue that the overall approach to transport is muddled and unsustainable. They say the RSS should prioritise investment in local rail , rather than airport expansion , road building and a 'Greater Bristol Bus Network'.
http://www.fosbr.org.uk/RSS.htm

I have additional concerns about the Draft RSS (see below.)

In other words, a moderate increase in traffic could be caused by a removal of the majority of passenger trains and a massive increase in freight, and that is what you're foreseeing?

Here are some more quotes , the first two from the Network Rail Business Plan 2006.

On future capacity requirements :

"changes to the timetable structure to reduce the mix of different train types and the number of conflicting moves."

"Between Didcot and Oxford the mix of non stop passenger and freight services with local services calling at little used stations reduces the ability to maximise capacity."

I quote from FGW's web site ...

[i]Over the term of the franchise we will invest £200 million in a programme of continuous improvement bringing a wide range of customer benefits, increased capacity, safety and service. We will also work with Network Rail to tackle deep-rooted performance issues on the Greater Western network.

Our immediate priorities are to ensure a smooth integration of the three franchises; introduce a new Timetable in December 2006; and deliver service improvements for our customers as early as possible.

In other words , Network Rail would like to work with TOC's to remove local or stopping services , in order to free up capacity and improve performance. First agree with this , mainly because they have been directed to by the DfT.

Before we let First off the hook , it should be remembered that both their bus and railfreight sectors benefit from this.

It should also be remembered that both First & Network Rail can propose a closure under the new DfT Closure Guidance.

As far as the medium - long term future is concerned , I feel that this quote from the Network Rail Business Plan 2006 is appropriate :

"The RSS (Regional Spatial Strategy) also recommends that commercial developments which generate high volumes of freight movements should be located close to appropriate rail freight facilities to support more sustainable distribution in the South West."

Have a look at the link below.
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=311.msg859#msg859

And section 8.5 of this one.
http://www.transport2000.org.uk/library/RoadstoRuin/section_08.htm

Quote from the above link :

"More serious attention needs to be given to freight movements through the county. In particular, there is potential for mini-rail-freight terminals in Wiltshire along the A350/A36 corridor. A rail-freight terminal at Westbury is planned, but this is some distance from proposed route of bypass. The parallel rail line (Westbury-Melksham-Chippenham-Swindon) has only one train per day in each direction but the service is due to be improved."

Since the above was written , the number of freight trains has increased on the Melksham line.

All in all , it would be fair to say that I am not optimistic , Graham.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2006, 10:15:57 AM by Lee » Logged
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2006, 01:41:10 PM »

Here is a link from the Friends Of Suburban Bristol Railways website entitled "Birmingham does it better."
http://www.fosbr.org.uk/Birmingham.htm

Quotes from the above link :

"Rail campaigners have discovered that Birmingham's local rail services are miles ahead of those in Bristol. Friends of Suburban Bristol Railways (FOSBR) visited local transport experts in Birmingham to ask them how Bristol can learn from their success."

"The local transport experts in Birmingham both said that a half hourly service was considered a minimum in their city, and that 'stop and go' services (so frequent that a timetable is not needed) were the preferred option. Peter Hughes from Rail Futures explained 'If a local line's going to be worth using it's got to be two trains an hour'. Bristol's local rail services are every hour or even more infrequent."

"The rail campaigners discovered that there are two main differences in approach to transport between Birmingham and Bristol. One is that Birmingham has a Passenger Transport Executive (PTE), which means that more priority is given to an integrated public transport system. Bristol City Council is itself a Passenger Transport Authority with the same theoretical powers as Centro (Birmingham's PTE), but it doesn't use them."

See the link below for practical proposals along the above lines for Bristol.
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=410.msg1517#msg1517

However , it would be a mistake to assume that everything is rosy for the wider Birmingham rail network. If the current driver shortage continues then it , along with engineering work , will have a significant impact on passenger figures , in much the same way as it did in the case of Melksham (links below.)
http://www.rmtbristol.org.uk/2006/10/driver_shortage_brings_rail_ch.html#more
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/west_midlands/4802085.stm
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=539.msg1572#msg1572
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/melkshamrailway/138_Lies_damned_lies_and_statistics.html

In my view , the main danger for both Birmingham & Bristol lies in the possibility that slower , traditional , stopping trains will make way for faster inter - urban links. I also believe that the way the future Cross - Country Franchise has been structured makes this more likely south of Birmingham. The links below emphasise my concerns on this.
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=264.msg697#msg697
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=510.msg1554#msg1554

Growing concern at the Cross Country Franchise proposals is also highlighted in the link below , entitled "Alexander told to put the brakes on rail plan meddling."
http://www.rmtbristol.org.uk/2006/10/alexander_told_to_put_the_brak.html#more

One final quote from the Friends Of Suburban Bristol Railways link :

"The other difference is that Birmingham's councillors have the political will to prioritise local rail. They are actively pushing for central government investment in their railways, as well as contributing financially themselves – and this gets results."
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2006, 02:29:32 PM »

However , it would be a mistake to assume that everything is rosy for the wider Birmingham rail network. If the current driver shortage continues then it , along with engineering work , will have a significant impact on passenger figures , in much the same way as it did in the case of Melksham (links below.)
http://www.rmtbristol.org.uk/2006/10/driver_shortage_brings_rail_ch.html#more
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/west_midlands/4802085.stm
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=539.msg1572#msg1572
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/melkshamrailway/138_Lies_damned_lies_and_statistics.html

This has also happened in the case of the Coventry - Nuneaton line (link below.)
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=249.msg688#msg688

You may have noticed that Kenilworth made the Third Party Promoted Schemes list on page 32 of the Cross Country Franchise Consultation Document (link below.)
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_railways/documents/page/dft_railways_611834.pdf

Here is a further link on Kenilworth.
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=419.msg1239#msg1239

Have a look at the link below , which shows the proposed route of the SPRINT "Streetcar" bus scheme. This will run from Kenilworth - Nuneaton.
http://www.sprint-there.co.uk/downloads/plan.pdf

Of course , the HoldFast method would not be suitable for the majority of secondary lines which in many cases are projected to achieve medium or high - level growth. One idea that is currently being consulted upon has as its focus the Coventry - Nuneaton corridor. (link below.)
http://www.sprint-there.co.uk/

Here is a map of the proposed route , which also serves Bedworth.
http://www.sprint-there.co.uk/downloads/plan.pdf

Here is a link to some technical information on Sprint , which is described as "The bus that thinks it's a tram"
http://www.sprint-there.co.uk/content.asp?ThreadNo=3&PagesID=561&size=

As you can see from the photo contained in the link above , one of the vehicles compatable with Sprint is First's "Streetcar" (link below.)
http://www.firstgroup.com/ftr/home.php

Sprint is part of the "Futurebus" concept unveiled by Douglas Alexander in York recently. Here is a link to his speech on this. Sections 1 - 6 are relevant to Sprint.
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_about/documents/page/dft_about_611647.hcsp

Here are some links to the Future Of Transport White Paper.
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_about/documents/page/dft_about_031274.hcsp

Quotes from the above link :

"5.17 We intend to give Passenger Transport Authorities the ability to choose whether to channel subsidy towards rail or other forms of public transport. In some cases, buses might provide both a better service and better value for money.

5.18 We recognise that Passenger Transport Authorities may not be willing to consider this unless they can be certain that bus routes, timings and fares will meet passenger needs and work well with the national timetable. We will amend the Transport Act 2000 to make it easier for Passenger Transport Authorities to introduce Quality Contracts as part of a strategy that includes modification of rail services.

The official name for the DfT Closure Guidance is "Railways act 2005: Implementation of network modification provisions."

5.19 Passenger Transport Authorities will be able to decide whether to take greater control of their bus routes and associated budgets by deciding which rail routes are best value and which would be more efficiently replaced by bus services."

http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_about/documents/page/dft_about_031273.hcsp

Quotes from the above link :

"There will be an increased role for the Scottish Executive, the Welsh Assembly Government and the London Mayor, and more local decision-making in England

Central government is not always best placed to take decisions on the transport needs of different communities. In future, the devolved administrations will take on increased responsibilities for passenger services and, where appropriate, infrastructure. In England, the Passenger Transport Authorities (which manage transport provision in some of the main metropolitan areas) will be able to buy additional services, and to transfer funding between rail and other transport modes. Transport for London will also have an increased role with regard to rail services in the capital. And the Government will promote the role of Community Rail Partnerships in improving the management of local branch lines. "

"A better deal for freight will enable the industry and its customers to invest for the long term
Because of the high up-front investment costs for rail freight, businesses using these services need to be sure about their access to the network. But this has to be balanced with the fact that freight users only pay for the cost of operating their services and not for the costs of the underlying infrastructure. Freight operators will be given greater certainty about their rights on the national network, and a group of key routes will be identified on which freight will enjoy and pay for more assured rights of access."

" 4.25 While central Government will have overall control of our rail network, regional and local players need to have the means to influence services in their own areas. Rail may not always be the most cost-effective or appropriate transport solution. Rail should be considered alongside other forms of transport, including bus and light rail, to provide a coherent solution to local issues that delivers the best service for the lowest cost. We believe that decisions are often best taken at a local level, and will ensure that an effective system is put in place. We will give local players an incentive to invest or find savings. "

Here is a link to the Network Rail Business Plan.
http://www.networkrail.co.uk/documents/3115_Route%2017%20West%20Midlands.pdf

Page 10.

"The SRA Gauging Policy set out a proposed
intermodal freight network cleared for the
transportation of 9’6” high containers. The following
routes were identified as priority routes, for which
there was believed to be a business case for
gauge clearance but for which no funding was
available:

Leamington – Coventry – Nuneaton"

Pages 11 & 12.

"The rail freight industry has recently provided to
Network Rail a set of 10 year traffic forecasts, and
we are presently assessing their implications. The
key route section within this route that has been
identified as a fragile route and has clearly defined
additional tonnage/ train numbers projected by the
industry is Coventry – Nuneaton. The extensive
track renewals recently undertaken on the
Coventry to Nuneaton line has meant that this route
can be removed from the fragile routes list in the
near future."

Page 13.

"On the Coventry – Nuneaton line, studies have
been undertaken by Warwickshire County and
Coventry City Councils in conjunction with Centro
to assess the relative benefits of increasing heavy
rail frequency, train-tram services on shared track
or alternative adjacent bus routes. These options
are currently under evaluation, with Network Rail
acting in an advisory role. Recently on this line, rail
services were restored following bus substitutions.
This allowed extensive track renewals works, as
part of a programme to remove certain long-term
TSRs on this section."

Here is a link entitled "The benefits of Sprint"
http://www.sprint-there.co.uk/content.asp?ThreadNo=3&PagesID=555&size=
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Lee
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2006, 12:47:19 PM »

A relevant Parliamentary Written Question has been asked (link below.)
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmordbk1/61009w01.htm

Chris Grayling (Epsom & Ewell):To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, whether he plans to permit the West Midlands Passenger Transport Authority to be a co-signatory to the West Midlands franchise.
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2006, 01:31:32 PM »

Here is the answer (link below.)
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmhansrd/cm061012/text/61012w0013.htm#06101336000782

Chris Grayling: To ask the Secretary of State for Transport whether he plans to permit the West Midlands Passenger Transport Authority to be a co-signatory to the West Midlands franchise.

Mr. Tom Harris: As set out in both the Transport and Rail White Papers, the Government are keen to devolve greater decision making to local and regional bodies. Local decision making can only be effective and efficient where the body making the decision is exposed to the financial implications of that decision.

The published DfT guidance note “The new system for the role of English PTEs in the rail franchising process” sets out how PTEs can procure changes to local rail services in their areas without being co-signatories to franchise agreements. Centro PTE is seeking to make an economic case for retaining co-signatory status in relation to the West Midlands franchise. In order to establish the costs of such status more clearly, a view will be sought on the cost implications from the successful bidder for the franchise prior to conclusion of the franchise agreement.
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2006, 01:39:04 PM »

You may also be interested in this Parliamentary Written Question (link below.)
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmordbk1/61016w01.htm

Mrs Caroline Spelman (Meriden):To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, if he will make a statement on his proposals to elect directly the six metropolitan passenger transport authorities.
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2006, 11:13:39 AM »

Mrs. Spelman: To ask the Secretary of State for Transport if he will make a statement on his proposals to elect directly the six metropolitan passenger transport authorities.

Gillian Merron: We have no such proposals.
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2006, 01:34:06 PM »

Here is a link from the Friends Of Suburban Bristol Railways website entitled "Birmingham does it better."
http://www.fosbr.org.uk/Birmingham.htm

Quotes from the above link :

"Rail campaigners have discovered that Birmingham's local rail services are miles ahead of those in Bristol. Friends of Suburban Bristol Railways (FOSBR) visited local transport experts in Birmingham to ask them how Bristol can learn from their success."

"The local transport experts in Birmingham both said that a half hourly service was considered a minimum in their city, and that 'stop and go' services (so frequent that a timetable is not needed) were the preferred option. Peter Hughes from Rail Futures explained 'If a local line's going to be worth using it's got to be two trains an hour'. Bristol's local rail services are every hour or even more infrequent."

"The rail campaigners discovered that there are two main differences in approach to transport between Birmingham and Bristol. One is that Birmingham has a Passenger Transport Executive (PTE), which means that more priority is given to an integrated public transport system. Bristol City Council is itself a Passenger Transport Authority with the same theoretical powers as Centro (Birmingham's PTE), but it doesn't use them."

Here is a further quote from the FOSBR link :

"In Birmingham, over 50% of commuters travel into the city by public transport. In Bristol, 11% travel by public transport (89% travel by car). 20% of peak hour travel in Birmingham is by rail, compared to 1.5% in Bristol."

Upcoming PWQ :

Mr John Spellar (Warley): To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what assessment his Department has made of levels of road traffic congestion in the Bristol area.

Interestingly , John Spellar was Transport Minister from 2001 - 2003 and Warley is a constituency on the western outskirts of Birmingham (link below.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warley_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2006, 09:52:14 AM »

However , it would be a mistake to assume that everything is rosy for the wider Birmingham rail network. If the current driver shortage continues then it , along with engineering work , will have a significant impact on passenger figures , in much the same way as it did in the case of Melksham (links below.)
http://www.rmtbristol.org.uk/2006/10/driver_shortage_brings_rail_ch.html#more
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/west_midlands/4802085.stm
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/forum/index.php?topic=539.msg1572#msg1572
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/melkshamrailway/138_Lies_damned_lies_and_statistics.html

Judging by the latest FOSBR newsletter , problems similiar to the ones in the above quote affecting the Severn Beach Line are getting worse.

Thankfully though , as always , FOSBR are putting up a fight. Here is an item from their website :

"Problems on the line

In the last couple of months, there have been more problems than usual on the Severn Beach line. Inadequate rolling stock and staffing problems have led to numerous delays and cancellations. Schoolchildren have been left on the platform because of overcrowding. These problems are the result of a franchise made in the context of inadequate financial support for local rail. It reflects the fact that the local trains are not taken seriously by local government in Bristol. People who choose to go by train rather than by car are penalised for their choice, rather than rewarded.

Let’s keep up the pressure on First and Bristol City Council – the public deserves reliable local trains and we’ll fight until we get them.

We suggest that you report problems with the service to
 
Andrew Griffiths, Regional Manager, Central (Severn & Solent), First Great Western andrew.griffiths@firstgroup.com

With copies to the following

Chairman of the Severnside Community Rail Partnership
Keith Walton keith@keithwalton.co.uk

Councillor Dennis Brown, Executive member for Transport and Development Control dennis_brown@bristol-city.gov.uk

Bristol West MP Stephen Williams tel: 0117 942 3494 Stephenwilliamsmp@parliament.uk

You can also help by joining us on the train to leaflet potential new members (see ‘What’s On’ for details).

And whatever you do, keep using the line!"

FOSBR will be leafletting potential new members on 10 November 2006 and will also be carrying out passenger counts on 9 & 16 November 2006.
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2006, 12:11:20 PM »

What about the Melksham line who is best to write to re cancellations etc.
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Re: Future Analysis
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2006, 02:12:43 PM »

What about the Melksham line who is best to write to re cancellations etc.

Good question , Sion.

I suppose , using the FOSBR list as a template , it would be :

Andrew Griffiths, Regional Manager, Central (Severn & Solent), First Great Western andrew.griffiths@firstgroup.com

With copies to the following

Melksham Save The Train Campaign
Graham Ellis graham@wellho.net

David Phillips ,Transportation & Development , Wiltshire County Council davidphillips@wiltshire.gov.uk

Devizes MP Michael Ancram tel: 020 7219 4435 ancramm@parliament.uk
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