That is quoted from another thread but I think worth opening up as a fresh session.
Lee, I was reading that yesterday and prepared a case answering many of the comments; the report written by Rose Costello did - in my view - take account of local circiumstances where they favoured a downgrading of traffic prospects, but ignored local circumstances where they meant a potential higher level. I do not know the background / have never come across Ms Costello before, so I don't know who briefed her, what terms of reference she had, or whether she made local enquiries as part of the exercise. Here is my draft set of comments:
Let me explode a few myths for you. I've been reading a revenue case made out for potential business from Melksham by team members at First Great Western, looking at the potential enhancement of hte service as from a forthcoming December. Firstly - thank you to First Great Wetern for looking at the case so seriously - it's much appreciated. Much good work, but I would like to raise issue with some of the comments and assumptions made - in all probablility, they're probably standard and usually reasonable assumptions that would apply in most places ... but there are some local factors that I don't see considered.
"Travellers going to London and Swindon will drive to Chippenham to get on the train"At the moment, many do - and they hate it. Have you ever fought your way in to Chippenham from the Rowden Arms on the Melksham Road and through the town centre, then up to the station to join the long ticket queue? If you advocate that people will continue to drive if there were a regular, reliable train service (and you'll note I've not said "half hourly") then I would say "some will". But only some.
For these last few weeks - and not for the first time - there have been roadworks on the Melksham to Chippenham Road. I've been stuck, in buses and cars, for over half an hour. And these road works are not infrequent. Much better a reliable train. Even when there's no road works, the road is busy at the peak, and the major increases in population of the corridor over the next 20 years can only make it worse. That's quite exclusing extra traffic generated along the A350 by any improvements in the Westbury area and agreements with other councils to route more trunk traffic through there.
Even at present, Melksham to London traffic tends not to use Chippenham. If I'm going to London and have to drive out of the town, I may as well drive further and catch the train for less of a distance; the economics of it encourage me to drive to Didcot, or Hungerford, or Basingstoke, or Andover ... and an apparent slower journey via South West Trains is often made up for by an easier transfer to my final destination within London. Let's face it - Paddington is not ideal for the London Bridge area, for example!
"Bristol and Bath passengers will drive to Trowbridge"Nah - once again, there's an awkward drive into Trowbridge which discourages use of the station there for railheading. Some will use Bradford-on-Avon and (for Bath) some (or even most) will use the X72 direct bus service. For Bristol, either two buses or bus plus train are just too slow for a regular journey, and you'll find that there are many people who'll drive all the way - especially to the north Bristol area.
Provide a two-hourly "TransWilts" service ... and in essence that's an hourly service from Melksham to Bath and Bristol, with alternate changes at Chippenham and Trowbridge. And you'll get a significant transfer of passengers who don't currently use the train at all ... all the way from Filton Abbey Wood or Parkway if the connections are reliable and right. I know some of the people ;-)
"There are few houses near the station. Development is going in at the other side of town"There's a significant new build within a hundred yards of the station. There's a new employer putting in for planning permission and quoting "300 jobs" right beside the tracks 100 yards from the station. And the old school site that's being vacated has just had planning permission for 270 homes (I think) put in.
But you're right - development IS also going on at the other side of the town - Melksham is growing all over. Because the urban area comprises Melksham Town and Melksham Without, it's sometimes seen as being smaller and less agressive in growth than it really is, as the town is hemmed in by "without".
Melksham Station is the only station in Wiltshire that's situated very close indeed to the A350 trunk road - and that provides an fast link to the major areas across the town of Bowerhill (growing), Snowberry Lane (growing) and the Semington Road (growing). It's not the physical distance of rides to the station that are significant, but the time they take - and the time they take in Melksham is short.
"The station is not used by buses"Correct - with the current awkward turn for heavier vehicles at the station, and the lack of services, there is no public transport feed to the station. Indeed it was a winner in Transport 2000's recent "station with dreadful access" competition. But let's look forward, not back:
1. 8 different bus route serve the A350 and A365 roads that fork at the top of the station approach. And these routes serve the town centre, most suburbs, and many nearby villages regularly.
2. Land is earmarked for a connecting road to make an arc between the A350 and A365, and the County Council has indicated a willingness to fund improvements here. We even put in a lottery bid and got through the first stages; it's been rough-costed and would work well. It would also open up the station to North Melksham - with three restuarants, a major out of town store, a supermarket and a handful of small shops as part of the immediate station area. Whether access was via a full road, a buses only road, or a footpath this would make a major difference.
3. The company directly across from the station who presently use the road there for unloading their lorries and make it so uninviting are already building new premises elsewhere in the town, and many of the older problems can be eliminated with fresh tennants.
The station could, then be served by services 14, X72, 272, X34, and 234 all of which run each way at least oce an hour. Add in services X95, X86, X96, 72, 73 (and perhaps some others I have missed).
You must heavily discount passenger numbers at Melksham because of the number of tickets sold from Melksham but only used from TrowbridgeIt's common knowledge that many train travellers from Trowbridge to Bristol buy a cheaper Melksham to Bristol ticket and don't really use Melksham at all. two comments:
a) FGW have told me that 40% of tickets sold from Melksham are to Bristol. So why are they discounting ticket sales by 70% in some calculations? Even if every one of those tickets was only used from Trowbridge, the 70% is a distortion.
b) Some of the figures that have been discounted in this way have been actual usage figures ... people counted on trains. So there is no ticket sale distortion to correct, and the whole basis of the calculation is flawed.
"A train at 07:17 to Swindon won't be used - look at the current service"Well - it's not ideally timed, and the Department for Transport's figures show that few people start their commute as early as this train leaves Westbury. And yet - it COULD be so much better used and make excellent commercial use of the train in marginal time, before it forms a commuter train from Stroud to Gloucester.
About a third of the travel on this corridor is long distance and two thirds are more local journeys made regularly. Regular (day return) journeys need an appropriate return train and for commuters getting into Swindon before 08:00 THERE IS NO SUITABLE RETURN TRAIN! The 18:42 is an hour too late - it makes just too long a day. Provide a train at 17:30 from Swindon (as used to be run) and you'll see the traffic on that 07:17 grow.
"A train at 18:42 from Swindon won't be used - look at the current service"The same argument in reverse. The only up train to Swindon is at 07:00 from Westbury and that's just too long a day. Run an up service at 08:00 or 08:10 from Westbury, and you'll add a feasible commute. "What about competition form the bus" - Nah - the bus takes 95 minutes from Trowbridge to Swindon, and the train just 35. No contest IF there's a train.
"I have only studied Melksham at the moment"Sorry - but that statement is breathtaking. But understandable. The TransWilts service covers 8 or 9 stations - not just the one - and Melskham whilst it has a population of some 24,000 is small compared to Salisbury or Swindon. These two towns, 40 miles apart, take the best part of 2 hours by other train or bus, but only 70 minutes when a suitable TransWilts is running (i.e. the Sunday evening through train).
The potential Melksham flows are significant ... but drawfed by the others which really must be considered too. People will drive rather than go the "Great Way Round" via Bath.
For every passenger who travels to or from Melksham, 3 more travel THROUGH Melksham without alighting (I have data - based on 2006 figures). You cannot base a commercial decision as to future traffic levels based on only 25% of the traffic potential - you'll get a distorted answer. In some ways, it's great to have the name "Melksham" on the map and as a shorthand for the TransWilts line - but in other ways that shorthand is our own worst enemy.
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