More Trains For Rhondda

From the Jacobs Consultancy / Sewta Rail Strategy Study (Pages 33 & 34 of the link below.)
http://www.sewta.gov.uk/PDF/Final_Report.pdf

"The passenger demand growth and capacity analysis presented in sections 4.2 to 4.4 highlighted that if rail demand within the Sewta area continues to grow there will be overcrowding of peak trains and a need for additional rolling stock to enable demand to continue to grow. Table 3 shows the rolling stock requirements and subsidy issues under the high growth assumptions (5% per annum). Under central growth assumptions the additional rolling stock required at 2018 would be 4 vehicles."

"The analysis assumes train strengthening using Class 150 vehicles which are available as 2 and 3 car trains and can be used in combinations. The operating costs assume a 50% ‘bounce-back’ – i.e.: that half of the additional rolling stock would be on trains that complete more than 1 journey into Cardiff in the peak period. Performance and operational constraints at Cardiff Central and Queen Street Stations limit the opportunity to couple / decouple trains to reduce off-peak operating costs. As a result the evaluation has assumed an average operating cost of £250,000 per vehicle."

"The demand released by the provision of additional rolling stock would generate revenues which would only serve to partially offset the additional operating costs and would result in a subsidy level growing from £0.3m in 2009 to £2.6m in 2018. However, the assessment of non-user benefits alone shows that the subsidies are justified with a ratio of benefits to net costs of around 1.2. In addition there would be significant additional user benefits associated with crowding relief and also wider regional benefits associated with the journey to work opportunities taken up as a result of the capacity provided, particularly to the Valleys to the north of Cardiff."

"It is recommended that additional rolling stock is funded for lengthening the Valley Lines services over the strategy period to meet the rising demand for peak rail travel. It is also recommended to investigate the potential to encourage peak spreading to make best use of peak period train capacity. In addition it is recommended that the strategy should examine the need for further platform lengthening to increase train lengths to meet peak demand needs and increase the flexibility to operate 6-car trains – specifically on the Barry Line."

"There is an opportunity to secure new rolling stock instead of cascading old rolling stock from elsewhere. Arriva Trains Wales have identified that there will be a lack of suitable (Class 150 ‘Sprinter’) rolling stock available for the additional Valley Lines operations and that modification of available Class 158 stock is impractical for a more intensive urban operation. In addition, the Class 14x (Pacer) rolling stock will be at least 30 years old by the end of the strategy period and, coupled with the need for significant investment in capacity to allow for passenger growth, there is a need to secure new rolling stock for the Sewta services."

"There would be a number of possible advantages of rolling stock renewal:
• Positive image impact for the region;
• Specification of Valley Lines stock;
• Faster acceleration for journey time savings / performance benefits;
• Large number of doors for faster access / egress; and
• 3-car sets designed for improved capacity / lower operating costs / revenue protection (conductors).
• Possible link with technological development, such as Fuel Cells to provide the benefits of regenerative braking.

It is strongly recommended that the opportunity to secure new rolling stock rather than cascaded rolling stock is evaluated in detail in the negotiations for the second half of the Arriva Trains Wales franchise. The fleet strategy needs to be developed in the short term."

This approach is further endorsed in the Prioritised Investment Programme (link below.)
http://www.sewta.gov.uk/PDF/SewtaPIP.pdf

That said , on 10 December 2006 , 8 First Great Western class 150s went off lease , and were handed to Arriva Trains Wales. The sets which went were 150230/236/240/241/242/251/253/254. I spotted one of these recently at Cardiff Central , still with its Cornish Branch Line livery.

For those that dont know , Jacobs Consultancy were also Technical Advisor for the Greater Western Franchise (link below.)
http://www.jacobsconsultancy.co.uk/pdfs/rail_greatwestern.pdf