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Topic: Chippenham - how marginal a seat? (Read 2149 times)
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Graham Ellis
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The new (additional) Chippenham parliamentary seat - carved from parts of Westbury, North Wilts and Devizes, includes the towns of Chippenham and Melksham on the TransWilts line. As all sitting MPs are remaining with the rumps of their existing seats, we've got new candidates for both of the parties who are "in with a shout" - the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, and both have already selected their candidates - both gentlemen of high calibre (in my opinion).
How close will the seat be? I have oft wondered .... but noticed this morning in a paper that's a few days old a "Tories top target" list that places Chippenham 22nd on that list, requiring a 1200 (paper) majority to be overturned with a 1.35% swing to them.
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Lee
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Putting my political hat on for a mo....
The last two reliable opinion polls give the Conservatives 11 & 13 point leads over Labour. Also good news for the Tories is that they are now in the "magic" 40's percentage wise , and Labour registered below 30% in both polls. This is significant , because it increases the likelihood that a Tory election win would be big enough to gain a viable majority. Anything above 30% for Labour would probably see them hold enough seats to ensure a hung parliament (unless the LibDems totally collapse , which they probably wont.)
However , the real factor standing between David Cameron and Downing Street is the need to win seats such as Chippenham (your neck of the woods) and Portsmouth South (my neck of the woods) from the Liberal Democrats.
In your seat the LibDem candidate is an extremely capable councillor and an experienced general election candidate , having lost to Andrew Murrison in Westbury last time round.
In my seat the sitting MP's charisma , experience and ability to inspire voter loyality is probably the only reason that Portsmouth South isnt a Tory seat now (it was through the 80's and much of the 90's.)
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