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July 30, 2006
Open Access case strengthened
A big thank you to a contributor to our forum for playing "Devil's Advocate" with the plans we published late last week to invite another TOC (Train Operating Company) to have a look at providing a Swindon - Westbury (and possibly beyond) every 2 hours from this December.
Most of our proposal stood up well - bl**dy well - and it seems that all the hard work that's been done in the last six months really is remarkably accurate.
I have made one change, though. My pricings were previously based on what it would have cost First to provide the service, with a train taken from a fleet of similar units based at the same depot ... in other words with a single train to provide the service. That was a "best case" scenario. A "worst case" scenario - for an out-of-area TOC to be basing a unit specifically to work the service, a second unit would be required as backup and to cover maintainance periods. This adds around 150k per annum and my pricing now reflects the worst case. Even with the service run in this more expensive manner, it's into profit in the second year
My "devil's advocate" feels that freight paths are a red herring .... maybe (or maybe not) but it really doen't matter as my proposal goes into some details as to how the line's capacity can be increased if need be without the need to lay extra tracks. His bottom line price seems high, but he hasn't given me a breadown of how he reached the figure (even when askied by email), and I suspect that he's just quoting a figure he's been fed, or he's taken an average statitic from somewhere rather than studying the service as I, and others, have done.
Many thanks to the folks who have helped further with the case ... my role here is both to corrolate it and re-assure myself that it's sane, Done that.
Onward, Stronger! The case is now looking even stronger.
Posted by gje at 06:18 PM | Comments (0)
July 26, 2006
Press Release - Open Access operator negotiations
Press release - 26th July 2006
"Save The Train" invites open access operators to provide a Swindon - Chippenham - Melksham - Trowbridge - Westbury train service.
On Friday, 28th July, First will publish their final train timetable for the service to run from December 2006. They currently provide 5 trains a day from Swindon to Melksham (pop 24,000), Trowbridge (pop 30,000) and Westbury (pop 12,000) and we anticipate a cut to just two trains - timed anti-socially at around 06:20 and 18:45 from Swindon. And yet the current service is a success, growing at around 35% (compound) per annum, with 109,000 journeys annually. And further growth can continue if the trains can continue.
Our campaign to Save the Train has commanded community support at all levels, and crossparty support in Parliament.
We submitted our original 2-hourly Swindon - Westbury proposal to the Department for Transport and First but, despite being told that there was "nothing wrong" with our business case, our proposals were rejected by both.
We have now began consulting with various other interested parties on our proposals, including talking to other rail operating companies under the "Open Access" scheme", and will make a further statement soon. We believe that with funding and other required factors in place, our proposals should be cleared by the Office of Rail Regulation.
Further details of our approach can be found at
http://www.savethetrain.org.uk/open.html?printer=1
Posted by gje at 11:10 AM | Comments (0)
July 22, 2006
In praise of estate agents
I thought that subject line would get your attention!
I've just been prompted to check with thetrainline for services from Swindon to Melksham on Monday evening, and I said I wanted to travel at 18:00. So it offered me the 22:11 ....
Have you ever walked into an Estate Agent and asked for a house with a maximum price of (say) 150k, and been given houses to look at in the 140k to 160k range. "Cheeky" you might say, but it IS worthwhile them adding in a bit of elastic.
Why can't trainline do the same thing? The person who prompted me to check was looking to commute into Swindon by train - to try it for the first time. Alas, the thought of a wait around from 18:00 until 22:11 has put him off .... damage limitation exercise in place herei; I'm emailing him about the 17:43, not that I'll get much thanks from the train operator for it [[I'll follow up if I do!]]
Posted by gje at 08:21 PM | Comments (0)
July 19, 2006
Bad news coming?
I've had an email telling me unofficially that I'm likely to be "very disappointed" with the final December timetable which I should see in the next few days. If I'm very disappointed, then many others who make up the 109,000 annual journeys will be disappointed too. For some of them it will cut a lifeline and have enormous personal effect. And it remains ludicrously un-necessary to cull the service!
Posted by gje at 07:27 AM | Comments (0)
July 16, 2006
Pivotal decison - to grow or to strangle?
Alison Forster, First Great Western's Managing Director, wrote to me earlier this month: "I regret that I will not be able to join you on the platform at Melksham on Friday [7th]. I will be in London appropriately enough negotiating on the December timetable!."
I replied "I hope the meeting in London has a good outcome for all interested parties, and certainly appreciate that such meetings are key.", and I briefly re-iterated the case for a service level / timing better than the drafts we have seen for the Swindon to Westbury and onwards services.
She followed up with: "Thank you for your email and for the information. We are aware of the MPs interest and that of other passengers and I will make sure you are fully updated as soon as a final decision is made."
And so, I wait with bated breath to hear of the next stage. A further week has passed, and no news - so perhaps they left their meeting, now over a week ago with work still to do.
This is at a time when Chris Grayling, the Shadow Transport minister, is asking the Government "what steps the Government has taken to improve rail services between Swindon and Westbury and at intermediate towns to provide transport alternatives for the new housing planned in the area" and "what the reason is for the delay in his reply to the letter of 24th April 2006 from Wiltshire County Council about rail services in Wiltshire".
This is also a time when reliability continues to be a real issue. We've had 4% of weekday trains (including the busiet train of the day) cancelled for each of the last two weeks. We've got rail replacement but services for at least some of the trains every weekend throughout July.
Yet this is also a time that the train use continues to flourish. I saw a dozen passengers waiting for the morning Southamton train on Saturday [8th] July, and when I dropped off a customer for the train of Friday [14th] ... waited for it, and it was crowded (I can't be more accurate - my prime role was to see my customer safely away, with directions on where he should change).
This morning, I've been reading a history of the Devizes line, closed on the same day in 1966 that Melksham originally lost its service. I quote:
"Further cuts in services were introduced from March 1962 ... this had a serious effect ... "
"It was apparent that BR's policy in cutting out the well used services was their covert way of making the line unviable, resulting in inevitable closure"
"By the summer of 1965, the branch and its services were almost dead ..."
The very last train from Devizes left at 20:57 on Saturday, 16th April 1966.
The population of Devizes rose from 8,495 in the 1961 census to 11,296 in the 2001 census. The population of Melksham (including Melksham Without) over the same period rose from 12,465 to 20,424. Today, it's estimated to be 24,000 and is projected and planned to continue to grow.
The meetings on 7th July and the discussions that have followed it may be pivotal. A turning point that - at the 11th hour - could retain the train services from Swindon and Melksham and on to Westbury, Salisbury and beyond. Usage statistics and observation are showing a strongly growing service. Forward projections and planning are showing massive growth of travel along the corridor.
And so, I wait with baited breath. On one hand, sense could prevail. On the other hand, it might be that a historian in 10 years time could paraphrase the authors of the Devizes book: "It was apparent that First / the DfT policy in cutting out the well used services was their covert way of making the line unviable, resulting in inevitable closure".
Posted by gje at 08:07 AM | Comments (0)
July 11, 2006
Rail future - the First Alternative
These are growth times for the First Group, with their clever strategy of bidding everyone else off court for rail franchises. They read into government policy a requirement for a big financial return from rail, and that's what they're providing. They read that there's no need to continue to provide more than a token service to towns such as Newquay, Barnstaple, Looe, Ivybridge, Melksham, Saltash, Severn Beach. They read that there's no need to provide reasonable cost travel, so they've withdrawn tickets such as the SuperSaver with replacements all being more restrictive and/or more expensive. So the norm for the future is the 50p - per - mile service between main centres, and a network that in a few years time will simply end at those centres.
Derek Twigg, the Minister with Rail Responsibility, answered a quesion from his opposition opposite number Chris Grayling telling him that "All premium payments received from rail franchises are appropriated in aid by the Department and the funds are made available for spending on transport."
In other words, Mr Twigg, the money that you're collecting from the First group bids will be subsidising other programs such as roads and buses ... there's just been 42 Million pounds awarded to the Bristol Showcase bus scheme and - guess what - First stand to benefit as the operator of most of those routes. They're getting their money back by playing the game the way the Department for Transport wish is to be played.
This has implications beyond just the Great Western area. The South West trains franchise is coming up soon, and it's rumoured that First will put in another massive bid and win it. I don't know how good the rumours are, but a leopard doesn't change its spots, so that would be a logical step for them. And that other leopard - the DfT - won't change its spots either, so chances are that First will get it.
How long, then, trains to Lymington, already running with the last two slam-door trains because the electrics on the line can't take current units? Does Alton really need a train service? Wouldn't it be logical to transfer diesel operations to the Great Western operation? What about a host of stations along the coast - wouldn't a simple Southampton - Bournemouth - Poole - Dorchester - Weymouth service be all that's needed, with customers from Brockenhurst, from Wareham, from Moreton being encouraged to "railhead".
Far fetched? Maybe. But consider this ... the population of Brockenhurst is around 6,000. Of Wareham, around 8,000. Of Melksham, currently under threat of loosing most of its trains, around 24,000. Of Alton, 16,500.
And also consider ... the tender specification for the Great Western was for 7 to 10 years of operation, but already this summer, First are surveying usage of trains on the "Cornish Branch Lines" at least. It looks rather as if the inclusion of a service in a 7 to 10 year franchise won't preclude the culling of services during that time. After all, I rather suspect that the new general railway legislation that makes rail closure easier is being put onto the statute book for use, and not just as a paper exercise.
Will Melksham still have trains in 2008?
Will Cornwall be just the Penzance line by 2013?
Will Brunel's Saltash bridge still carry passengers in 2018?
Will the seawall at Dawlish simply fall into the sea in 2023, and trains be cut back to Exeter or Bristol?
Will the old GWR line from London to Bristol, run as a heritage railway, be all that is left by 2028?
And will that too be closed by 2033 under a weight of tax and regulation?
Posted by gje at 05:41 AM | Comments (1)
July 08, 2006
Friday, 7th July - Melksham
I don't know where to start writing today ....
No, seriously, I DO know where to start, which is yesterday's visit by Chris Grayling MP, Shadow Transport Minister, Michael Ancram QC, MP, the BBC, and many, many others to the station. I did a little introduction, Chris spoke about the crazyness of the current DfT policy that's pushing Melksham back to just 2 trains a day in December and looks like it could be a step in a "closure by stealth" campaign from them that's been repeated elsewhere in the Great Western area and in other upcoming franchises, and we had a very good informal discussion around the platform. No-one had a good word to say for the Department for transport's plans as they relate to Swindon - Melksham - Southampton. Sufficient people there for the First represenentative to have to remind us to keep back from the platform edge (and indeed, as the final few stragglers left a long, long freight train passed through at speed).
Yesterday was also an important timetable discussion meeting in London and most of First's managers were there; our Region General Manager made an exception to join us in Melksham. Alison Forster, First Great Western's MD promised by email that she would ... "make sure you are fully updated as soon as a final decision is made". There's some promise in that - there is still a final decision in the offing
What else? I've been looking at / reading into some of the new proposed freight routes from Southampton, as per a Freighliner announcement of the last few days and it looks like many of the services will be routed via Melksham ... indeed, our section could well be a bottleneck if we retain a reasonable passenger service (do I spot a DfT plan / motive there? If so, they haven't told us that)
Yesterday's local paper had a huge 2 page advertising spead by Knorr-Bremse, designers and manufacturers of railway equipment here in Melksham employing hundreds of staff, which declared Melksham - Now a Centre of World Leading Rail Technology. How ironic on the very day that we were holding a critical meeting to discuss the future of the whole railway service to the town.
I also learnt yesterday that "supersaver" fares were quietly withdrawn by First Great Western a few weeks ago, I presume as a part of their simplification of the fare structure. Supersavers offered the lowest cost "walk up" - i.e. not advanced purchase - fares on many journeys to London on days that are NOT considered peak days. i.e. they were typically available Monday through Thursday, Sundays and Winter Saturdays, but were NOT available around holiday periods. The lowest walk up fares are now the Savers, available on all days but with restrictions on which trains can be used; previous users of Supersavers must now step up to these more expensive tickets.
This morning, I passed by the station just before the 09:15 to Southampton left - gladdened to be able to report about a dozen people waiting. I'm nor a great user of certain services, and that includes the southbound 09:15 at the weekend. Gladdened to see so many there in spite of all the engineering cancellations this particular train suffers, and I wondered how many more would already be on board from Swindon and Chippenham when it comes through.
---OOO---
Finally, I must end a piece dated exactly one year on from the London Tube bombings by adding a few words here to remind us of all those people who died, who were injured, and their friends and relatives for whom the suffering goes on.
Posted by gje at 10:38 AM | Comments (0)
July 07, 2006
Visit by Chris Grayling and Michael Ancram
A Huge THANK YOU to Chris Grayling (shadow transport secretary) and Michael Ancram (our MP) for coming along today and giving us their support.
They take to Westmister with them a view of a service that shows much that's good in secondary rail services - a real success story that's had traffic rise 8 fold in 5 years to 109,000 journeys per annum, through towns such as Chippenham (44,000) and Melksham (24,000) which are set to grow by 30% in the next few years.
Fantastic also to see senior representatitves of First, local councils, the county council, the BBC (national coverage), local press, users, local business people, Melksham Rail Development group .. and please forgive me anyone I've missed out.
A dreary morning ... no passenger trains (after the 09:12, we have nothing to 13:35 as it is) but a unanymous view from everyone who spoke that cutting down from the current service to trains at 7:15 a.m. and p.m. only ... will result in a service that carrys fresh air around - exaclty what the previous transport secretary, Alastair Darling, said he did NOT want to happen.
Derek Twigg, Douglas Alexander. I challenge you. Take action to safeguard the service and to let the bud bloom into a flower. Don't let it gown down the "fresh air" route that is NOT your stated policy.
More about what Chris Graying had to say on the forum, and to follow later
Posted by gje at 07:21 PM | Comments (0)
July 06, 2006
Welcome for Michael Ancram and Chris Grayling
Looks like tomorrow will be a big day, with our MP and the Shadow Transport spokeman in town. There will be some press there, a representative of First, a representative of Wilts County Council, a representative of the South West Regional assembly and many more. I don't know whether we'll have anyone from Government Offices South West, or from the Department for Transport, but I would very much hope so.
As I'm not really used to organising these things, I don't know exactly what to expect; I'll have a couple of possible agendas to hand to be able to make the visti effective whatever the metrics turn out to be, and I've even started to write myself some notes / possible 10 minute intro so I don't have to "wing" it too much and leave something out.
ALL welcome. If you can let me know, so much the better. If not, just turn up.
If I find myself talking, perhaps this is what I might say:
1. Welcome
a) I'm Graham Ellis - I run computer training courses here in Melksham. Many of our customers arrive and leave by train from their homes all over the country, and me and my family use the train and other public transport whenever we can for business and personal trips.
b) Welcome to Chris Grayling, shadow Transport Minister, and Michael Ancram who represents the Devizes constituency, which includes Melksham, in Parliament.
2. History and current service.
a) Melksham's train service comprises 5 trains each way Monday through Friday on the Swindon to Southampton service, with 4 on Saturday and 3 on Sunday.
b) Ticket sales for journeys to and from Melksham rose from about 3,000 in 2000/2001 to over 27,000 five years later, with around 109,000 journeys made on the stopping service through the station annually. That works out at an average of 32 passengers per train. Some trains are considerably busier, and some are quieter. One of the features of the traffic flow is that passenger
numbers on the same train, same day of the week can vary dramatically from week to week.
b) Tickets to and from Melksham are bought to and from Swindon, Bristol, and Salisbury in significant numbers (over 5% of sales each). There is also around 25% of long distance traffic; I have spoken with travellers to and from Neath, Exmouth, London, Bolton, Edinburgh, Cornwall, Bognor Regis, Southampton and York amongst others all within a few days.
c) The single track section of the line through Melksham is frequently used for diversion of express trains. For example, for 9 days at the end of September the line will be used for express trains from Chippenham to London which will pass through Melksham nonstop, and the local service will be replaced by buses from Westbury to Swindon. The service operator has explained to me that they cannot stop their expresses at Melksham.
d) Engineering works frequently close the line for all or part of the weekend. We have had only a handful of "regular service" weekend in the past 9 months.
e) Replacement buses are much slower (journey times doubled or worse) and unpopular; they convey perhaps a quarter of the passengers that would ride the equivalent train. Tickets have rarely been collected on the buses in the past, and in many cases no-one is provided to collect fares at either end of the journey either. This means that bus users are often riding free of charge and are NOT include in the usage statistics.
f) The weekday service has a fearsome cancellation record, and publicity and information is almost non-existent even at Swindon and Chippenham.
g) The station site in Melksham is unattractively positioned in the back of an industrial estate. Land has been earmarked to provide improved access via the new Spencer's Gate housing area, and the shops and restaurants close by. This land also provides for a relocated station a few hundred yards to the North of the present one.
h) The line is maintained to a high standard and has a generous loading gauge making it ideal for freight trains, which are seen from time to time. I understand from people who live within earshot of the railway that it can be pretty busy at night.
i) In spite of the negative factors described, traffic has grown over the years to the extent that I've travelled on trains - and NOT the peak trains either - where I've not been able to get a seat.
3. Threats and case
a) The Strategic Rail Authority specified the complete withdrawal of the Swindon to Southampton service in their request for bids for the new Great Western franchise that was awarded to the First group last December.
b) An alternative service of 2 per day in each direction is to be provided, with a specification that one train arrives in Swindon in the morning peak and another leaves in the evening peak.
c) All bidders were invited to put additional cases in their bids to the Department for Transport, and there have been stakeholder consultations and some service modifications through the area covered by the new franchise since then.
d) The latest draft timetable shows trains leaving Swindon for Chippenham, Melksham, Trowbridge and Westbury only at 06:20 and 18:32, arriving back there at 07:44 and 20:10. Only the 06:20 train runs within 30 minutes of an existing service.
e) Trains from Swindon at 08:43, 14:23, 17:42 and 22:11 are withdrawn. Trains arriving back there at 06:20, 08:18, 14:01, 17:21 and 22:01 are withdrawn.
f) If the proposed new service replaces the current one, it will no longer be possible to travel by train from London to Melksham except leaving London at 17:00 or 17:33.
g) If the proposed service changes go ahead, it will no longer be practical for commuters and business people to travel from Swindon and Chippenham to Melksham, Trowbridge, Westbury, Warminster or Salisbury to work, nor for them to return by train at the end of the day.
h) Commuters from Frome, Westbury, Trowbridge and Melksham to Chippenham and Swindon face a much longer day - they will arrive in Swindon 34 minutes earlier than at present, and not be able to leave again until 42 minutes later than at present. The morning service from Frome will no longer be direct.
i) Train users who work part time or evenings will not have any suitable train service available.
j) Most of the weekend travel opportunities, including the option to work / spend the day in Swindon, will be removed under the draft weekend timetables. These have not been circulated as widely as the weekday drafts.
k) The First 234 bus service, which also serves Trowbridge, Melksham and Chippenham does NOT serve the station in Chippenham, even though there's a new road / rail interchange there, and First have promoted this as a part of their franchise publicity. Requests for the 234 bus to serve the station in Chippenham have been politely rejected on cost grounds.
l) New legislation (consultation was last April) relating to the complete closure of stations and services that do not meet certain economic criteria is likely to catch the much reduced Melksham service in its net. A service that continued to grow as the current service has done would most likely be safeguarded.
m) The British Rail Board Residual Body is planning to sell by auction on 31st October 2006 land which has been safeguarded for improved station access, and for the new station site.
n) Chippenham, Melksham, Trowbridge and Westbury all continue to grow, and are forecast to have some of the highest rates of growth anywhere in the UK. The road link between the (A350) is mostly single carriageway and has significant bottlenecks at Westbury, near Melksham Station, and at Beanacre. Road access into Swindon is congested and slow at peak times, and parking there is expensive.
o) Current train travel per head of population in Melksham is less than one twentieth of that of neighbouring towns such as Bradford on Avon and Chippenham, both of which have (and will retain) much more frequent services.
p) When asked to look at / review their decision, the Department for Transport quotes an SRA survey taken over a period of just over a week in Spring of 2005. Usage of the trains in that week was significantly lower than the averages revealed by section 2(b). Taking a short sample of traffic on a railway service that has significant peaks and troughs, and extending it to a complete year, is statistically flawed, and the evidence gathered is of little scientific and commercial use.
4. Discussion
a) With services cut back as proposed, I foresee a rapid drop in the number of passengers using the service.
b) If the current service was retained, I would see continued growth at the sort of levels we've seen averaged over the past few years. Such growth would be stimulated by a more reliable service (promised by First throughout the Franchise area), improved station facilities (also promised by First), and by better information and marketing.
c) If the current service was replaced by a regular interval (2 hourly) service leaving Westbury at 05:45, 07:45, 09:45 and 11:45, then 14:45, 16:45, 18:45 and 20:45, returning from Swindon 1 hour later, traffic levels would increase dramatically. This service could be provided by a single type "153" coach and could be run as an extension of the Southampton to Westbury service through 2007, perhaps being taken over by the new operator of the South West franchise at that point.
d) The economic case (best financial balance sheet) of these three cases is in favour of the regular interval service. This option also provides the best solution for passenger convenience and for the economics of the towns served, and encourages their continued prosperity.
4. Where from here
a) We strongly encourage the Department for Transport and the First group to provide an appropriate train service from this December. As a minimum, this service should be at the current level, but the better case, economically and socially, is for a train every 2 hours.
b) We request that the more detailed timetable review re-times the morning train into Swindon to arrive shortly after 8 a.m. and to leave on its return shortly before 6 p.m. so that it retains its utility as a commuter service.
c) We request that the land safeguarded for station access / improvements at Melksham remains safeguarded.
5. Conclusion
a) I would like to thank everyone who has supported the "TransWilts" train service and the case for its retention; they are too numerous to mention, but I would especially like to thank to Michael Ancram and to Chris Grayling, for all their efforts on our behalf so far. They are truely appreciated.
b) We must continue to press the case for the TransWilts train. Although things may look bleak today, I'm reminded of the railway line to Looe that was within 2 weeks of complete closure in the time of Dr Beeching, but was reprived at the last minute. Today, trains are so busy in the summer that the conductor can't even get around to everyone during the journey. It CAN be done, even at this 11th hour.
Posted by gje at 10:05 AM | Comments (0)
July 05, 2006
Important but not refreshing meeting
This Friday, 7th July, at 11 a.m. Our MP, Michael Ancram, meets the shadow transport minister Chris Graying at Melksham Station. All welcome.
I had hoped to be able to have refreshments on hand at the station. The "Kiss and Ride" morning we ran last Autumn, with teas and coffees was a memorable one, and certainly helped with our publicity. Alas, we're not allowed to set up an urn this time due to health and safety concerns, and we could only serve other refreshments if a member of the FGW team is present. 3 days before the MPs visit, and over 2 weeks after my request for permission, I have decided that it's too late to set anything up on this if we could - after all, [b]resfreshements are peripheral to the main business, which is to attempt to reverse the proposed slashing back of the train service[/b].
I've also heard that there's an important timetabling meeting o DISCUSS the timings in London on 7th July, and the important managers will all be at that London meeting. I've written to contacts, wishing them good luck in coming up with train schedules that are [b]suitable for the DfT, for the operators and for their customers[/b] and requesting that they remember the meering that's going on as they negotiate.
Posted by gje at 08:38 AM | Comments (2)